Helped by the launch of its U.S. platform in May, Polymarket said its yearly revenue exceeded $1.8 billion, easily surpassing the $1 billion forecast delivered in June.
The privately held prediction market operator disclosed the $1.8 billion annual revenue run rate figure to CNBC earlier today. Polymarket’s bullish revenue outlook is a sign the yes/no exchange benefited from soaring volume in June and July due to the World Cup and the arrivals of the college football and NFL seasons.
Indeed, Polymarket volume is soaring as notional volume on the company’s U.S. platform surged to $14.5 billion last month, more than tripling the $4 billion in notional turnover seen on the exchange just four months prior.
Polymarket U.S. operates independently of the company’s broader international platform.
Good News for Polymarket Investors
News that Polymarket’s yearly revenue is now flirting with $2 billion may come as a relief to the company’s investors, some of whom recently allocated $1 billion to the company, which pumped its valuation to an estimated $21 billion.
There’s been increasing speculation that investors are concerned about missteps by Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan, including worries that on the basis of market share, the company is trailing its primary rival by too wide of a margin.
That chatter intensified recently following reports that circulated in late October that Polymarket fired former Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) Matthew Modabber amid an internal investigation regarding alleged misconduct.
Polymarket is said to have raised $1 billion in August, reportedly including a $300 million contribution from Donald Trump Jr.’s venture capital firm 1789 Capital. An April capital-raising round was reportedly led by a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), with another $400 million coming from a consortium steered by hedge fund D.E. Shaw.
Polymarket Facing Scrutiny
The rising revenue figure for Polymarket U.S. is undoubtedly good news for the company, but the firm is still facing headwinds on multiple fronts. For example, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prediction markets’ federal regulator, is investigating Polymarket’s advertising practices.
Additionally, there’s concern among prediction market proponents that with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress come January, political pressure on the industry could increase. Polymarket and a competitor could be particularly vulnerable on that front because Trump Jr. is an advisor to both corporations.
With 2027 right around the corner, another wildcard facing the prediction market industry is the specter of the Supreme Court potentially striking down sports event contracts, which are far and away the most heavily traded derivatives on yes/no exchanges. For now, there isn’t a prediction market case on the high court’s docket, but that could change.
