ECONOMY
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Treasury Bill Supply and ON RRP Investment
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, Catherine Huang, Gabriele La Spada, and Sergio Olivas Take-up at the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) increased from a few billion dollars in January 2021 to around $2.6 trillion at the end of December 2022. In this post, based on a recent Staff Report, we explain how the supply of U.S. Treasury bills…
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FHA First-Time Buyer Homeownership Sustainability: An Update
Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy An important part of the mission of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is to provide affordable mortgages that both promote the transition from renting to owning and create “sustainable” homeownership. The FHA has never defined what it means by sustainability. However, we developed a scorecard in 2018 that tracks the long-term outcomes of FHA first-time…
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Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take-up in the Second Half of 2023
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances…
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Does Trade Uncertainty Affect Bank Lending?
Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minoiu The recent era of global trade expansion is over. Faced with increased geopolitical risk, fragile foreign supply chains, and uncertainties in the international trade environment, firms are postponing entry into foreign markets and pulling back from foreign activities (IMF 2023). Besides its direct effects on real activity, the recent…
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Where Is R-Star and the End of the Refi Boom: The Top 5 Posts of 2023
Anna Snider The topics covered on Liberty Street Economics in 2023 hit many themes, reflecting the range of research interests of the more than sixty staff economists at the New York Fed and their coauthors. We published 122 posts this year, exploring important subjects such as equitable growth and the economic impacts of extreme weather, alongside our deep and long-standing coverage…
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Hey, Economist! Outgoing Advisor Antoine Martin Reflects on How His New York Fed Perch Has Shaped His Work
An Interview with Antoine Martin Antoine Martin, an economist and financial stability advisor in the New York Fed’s Research and Statistics Group, will soon take up a new post at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), as head of its third department covering money markets/foreign exchange (FX). In that role, Martin, who is originally from Switzerland, also becomes one of three…
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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2023
Marco Del Negro, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast…
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Recent Disparities in Earnings and Employment
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Kasey Chatterji-Len, Dan Garcia, and Maxim Pinkovskiy The New York Fed recently released its latest set of Equitable Growth Indicators (EGIs). Updated quarterly, the EGIs continue to report demographic and geographic differences in inflation, earnings (real and nominal), employment, and consumer spending (real and nominal) at the national level. This release also launches a set of national wealth…
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